The Ethanol Proposition

The Ethanol proposition comes off as quite a debate. I have spent time reading several websites & pages looking at both, the pros and cons, of this much touted source of alternative energy being advertised as our promise to independence from middle eastern oil and along with it a plethora of dirty politics.

All we really need to know about Ethanol is that its an extract of corn, can be produced right here on arable land and its current fuel product is known gasohol due to the mixture with gasoline. The production process, I gather, is quite elaborate. I have read over information stating that its production consumes rather large amounts of energy that is partly based on the very fossil fuels its promising to beat out. Yet there is room for improvement and evolution. Apparently, its eco-effects are far better that those of gasoline: most studies published on the energy source agree on this. I had a conversation at work the other day where my colleague shot down Ethanol as a gasoline replacement because of the unthinkable size of arable land required to replace current gasoline levels is just not plausible. True? Don't know but certainly a brain tickler on the subject. Even if its not producable as vastly as gas, it can take a corner with hard core greeners.

Ethanol is not just a hobby fuel or experiment. It appears to have a substantial lobby as indicated by the website www.e85.com that propagates an ethanol based fuel that carrying 85% of the substance. Though not nearly enough, a few hundred fueling stations carry the source across the US. Not peanuts. And there is quite a list of ethanol compatible vehicles at: http://www.e85fuel.com/e85101/flexfuelvehicles.php

The one thing that puts a dampener on this energy source is that it doesn't pack the same punch as gas. A gallon of gas packs as much as 1.5 gallons of Ethanol. That's quite a psychological blow. Competition in alternative energy is not scarce. Plug-in electrics, electric batteries, hydrogen and fuel cells. Its not comforting to be disadvantaged like that against big bad gasoline. Infrastructure is another thorn. Despite some areas of the country looking well covered, access obviously does not compare to electric power. One would hope that pricing would provide an incentive boost. Not quite. According to the following page, the gasohol process would cost $1.74 per gallon in today's terms not including profit margin. Its better but hardly exciting.
http://auto.howstuffworks.com/question707.htm

Another Ethanol element that doesn't sit well is its advertisement of gasoline independence. Although a valid objective, its unsettling as a claim to fame. The power and efficiency of the source should define its existence. While we do want diversification in our energy sources we do want to advance as well.

To car manufacturers the charm in Ethanol may be that unlike Electric-Gasoline hybrids and pure electrics, it does not seem to require major mechanical modification or re-engineering.

To what level Ethanol advances will be interesting to see. Is it to stay a debated project or will it take its place amongst tommorrow's fuels. Meanwhile, a video! ...........................

Power Hybrids

This entry, I'd like to cover the subject of 'Power Hybrids' - a piece to which I credit 3 cars as follows: The Lexus GS450h, the Honda Accord V6 Hybrid and the Toyota Highlander V6 Hybrid. Power Hybrids. What does it mean? Why are they here? What do we do with them? Do I know? Probably not. Still, lets have some fun and explore.

Let's not save the best for last. We will start with the Lexus. Is it muscle flexing? Or a sharp take on what luxury consumers are looking for? Rather than mull much over why its here we should really be glad it is. For many reasons of course but let's look at some starkly scientific ones through some raw facts. At first, when you compare this car to its closest non-hybrid version, the GS430, it does not look all that impressive. The GS450h improves mileage over the GS430 by around 6mpg or 29% to 27 mpg (avg of city/fwy) while other specs are pretty much comparable. Now take a look at it another way. The 2006 Mercedes S500 comes with a 302bhp engines which is 37bhp below the Lexus, its 0 - 60mph is around the same as the Lexus's boastful 5.2 seconds. The S500 is about 7 mpg worse on consumption and $32,000 higher on price. That's like the price of a low end luxury car. The BMW 750i by comparison does exceed in bhp over the Lexus coming in at 360 vs. 339, not a discernable impact, but of course it's going to be worse in efficiency by 6 mpg and higher again in price by $18,000. I know that luxury branding is another planet. Rich people spend money for their reasons. But while branding for the well-to-do, these premiere car makers have their own set of rivalries and being peoples of science, all the other car makers must be feeling the left-behind by Lexus who has produced a beauty of a package. The GS450h probably does not win over would-be buyers of the S500 or 750i as much as it does for the E350($55,700) or the 530i($49,700). Scientific prowess has a tremendous branding impact. If not directly in the luxury car market, it still propels the brand enough to ripple through all market segments. Think of it like a Mercedes S500 with the mileage of a Toyota Camry and priced attainable for the upper middle class if you really really really want it ($54,000). Such punches at the competition can spark wars. A good war. As a result, the electric portion in today's hybrid cars could well become a mass market thing. BMW has already announced that it will be launching a hydrogen vehicle in its 7 series class in 2007 (I am researching this right now and could be my next blog entry). And Honda will start leasing its fuel cell car to selected customers. As for Mercedes I have yet to get wind of anything exciting from them apart from branding some of their cars for the high end of the luxury market. The 2007 S class has 2 trims: the S600 and S65 priced at $140,000 and $180,000 respectively. Not respectfully.

The other cars I mentioned at the opening of this blog are the Honda Accord V6 Hybrid and the Toyota Highlander V6 Hybrid. Both cars are good works of science. 200bhp+. Almost 30 mpg. Here's the problem. At $30,000+ the name brands are venturing out of sphere into the low end luxury market. That is the reason why I think they both have suffered in sales units. In the Accord or highlander brand the correct business decision would have been to build hybrid versions of the Accord LX and the 4-cylinder Highlander that would approach 40 mpg. Like what Toyota did with the hybrid Camry. The Lexus is positioned better in that regard. It does not even demand a significant premium over the GS430 and like I said will win converts from high priced luxury models of competitors that have smaller bodies, bhp and mpg. Perhaps the thinking at Honda and Toyota is not get the sales bomb right with these cars. Perhaps it really is just making a statement. Psychological. Anyway, the Lexus seems to get in all the angles. I would predict that the Lexus GS450h will sell 50,000+ cars in its 1st 12 months in the United States alone compared to the 20,000 or so units the Accord Hybrid is expected to come in at in 2006.

Good for Lexus, good for us.

PHEVs

I first came across this latest version of the hybrid experiment about a month back and started some research into it. It does well to pull you in with its bright lights banner of 100+ mpg. Gotta admit, it is spectacualr to see that kind of a push of the envelope. What is allowing the gas/electric hybrid combination to to reach such uncharted levels of mpg is a strong leverage towards the electric side of the vehicle with gas playing more of a supporting role and electric taking up the main charge. Ha ha, get it.....main charge. Sorry. Now, if the electric side is going to rein in such prowess it can't do it the way the existing hybrid car models are built. By self-charging. Taking their time. That won't do it - more power is needed. Hence, you must plug these babies in just like an all-electric car. Hence, a PHEV. Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle.

As I wrote in my very first blog entry, I and my Sothern California bretheren went through the trauma of $500 montly electricity bills this summer and the events of 100 power outages related deaths, hundreds of burnt out transformers that So Cal Edison didn't have enough manpower to catch up with, coming with in a hair of rolling blackouts and rotting food in refrigirators. The electric shock bills had become topics of conversation in any form of social gathering anywhere. I recall well the Edison officials on radio pleading that the pace of development in Sothern California has gotta be checked. Apparently, a 3 bedroom 1700 sq ft single family home priced at $600,000 isn't enough to stop it. Anyway, I digress. California's energy crises (thanks in part to the dead and buried firm of Enron) is not the world's.

Though these vehicles are still very much a spectator sport and any marketable entity is still a few years away, I still find the stuff exciting. At least to look at. For now. The experimental cars are small and feeble. Doing 40 miles off one charge. Top speeds of 60mpg. Stuff like that. All of that is going to change. The Tesla Roadster can do a top speed of 130mph and 200 miles off one charge. But its a $100,000 2 seater. I am not as big a fan of plug-in as I am of the self-charging batteries but with a hybrid combination the plug-in can be reduced to perhaps once or twice a week. The trip to the pump once a month. And thats workable. As long as the cars are built for mainstream. That's 200bhp. 3000 lbs+. Full size sedan. More than 50mpg. We don't need 100mpg. That will stay a spectator sport for some time. By the way, a Southern California company called Energy CS has plans to offer converter kits to convert certain existing hybrids into PHEVs for $12,000. If you want to put that into cost/benefit perspective then read my earlier blog titled 'Hybrid Reality Check'. Its an act of sports for now.

Crude Oil dips to $55/bbl, 1 year low

The price of crude oil petroleum futures has taken a 1 year low dip to around the $55/bbl mark. Pundits are pointing to higher stockpiles as well as production capacity. But the specific reasons in turn for that begin to get scarce. They hype-o-rama that started 18 months ago around rising demand in the US as well as the up and coming behemoth levels in China has long been laid to rest. Though not much can be done about high growth vehicle demands in China, India and other Pacific Rim countries, the advent of alternative fuels in the west and USA's potential to check its appetite and demand will keep the markets guessing. Winter forecasts and further psychological pressure should drive the price lower. But there should be oscillation. I would look for a range of $45 - $65 over the next one year or so. And, do not dismiss that powers-that-be can lower price by jacking up production, refining and delivery to keep the black gold attractive.

Gas prices at the pump here in the USA, however, have increased by roungly 8 cents or so. These should see some softening ahead of a winter with a mild forecast.

Though important, such matters I feel are not critical. The job is at hand: Diversified sources, low cost, eco-conscience, less political fodder.

Techno Dump

Yes I know that I should stay faithful and focused to the subject and niche of my blog. But I reckon its time to pull an exception. If only to prove that the rule is correct. Good excuse. But the truth is: I write this cause I have to. I must. I was just witness to an act of human deterioration at the expense of technological advancement and I must digress slightly to bring the episode to blog. I'll keep it short.

Like the rest of us I have watched the inclusion of navigation systems in our vehicles with a side smile and not much thought. I don't own one. Was never really inimical to it but my subconscience must have kicked in and taken note of a friend o' mine screaming into his new voice response cell phone 5 years ago with a tingling my insides took to it. 'Home!' 'Home!', I recall the bellow. 'I do not recognize that entry' was the heartless response. The corny otherness of the tone may have stayed with me. The device I took exposure to the other day is a widely spreading wonder of the modern age - the GPS based navingation systems in our vehicles.

What happened may occurr only in the road networks of large metropolises or rather in this case the San Fernando Valley of Los Angeles where traffic levels are jaw dropping and plotting routes a source of social conversation. My colleague and I set out to make a quick dash for a client call from a business meeting in the middle of the day. He was naturally eager to display his latest gadet acquisition and just as eager to use his investment in the interwoven matrix of roads and freeways out here. Much as I felt the urge to boast my in-the-know of an efficient route to our destonation I stayed put to observe this soon-to-be fixation of modern transportation. The trip had started innocently enough. But as we progressed, I watched in horror as the system's algorithm revealed its route jerking us around major roads and even taking us on the freeway for a next-exit interlude. I don't know if this plot was a factor of shortest distance but it was factored high on stupidity. A sense the system was obviosuly oblivious to along with time of day and traffic patterns. We must have gone 10 minutes over. This was a close-up view of how sometimes technological advances come at the expense of human intuition. It certainly delayed my use of GPS seduced driving directions for some time. I do like the fact of having a map display and being able to see where I am. But I won't be asking silicon for directions any time soon. Not after this. A kind but impish remark I passed to my defensive colleague was that there is a lesser chance of this happening in simpler upstate NY. Just, I suppose, be careful of what you get into and how you use it.

I call such drollery, 'Techno Dump'. Avoid the crap, if you can.

Hybrid Reality Check

Awright, recently I have read a spate of blogs and aritcles lamenting over the apparent downturn in hybrid vehicles given the drop in gas prices and you know......people being people. Ok, here's the deal people.....this is not terrible news, its awesome news! People are not saying they'll only look into the wimpy hybrid side of things if it hurts the wallet, they are registering their opposition to the pricing structure which is wrought with inefficiency.

Let's take the example of the Honda Civic, a model that has a regular and hybrid version. The Civic EX, its top trim in this model, is listed at $19,510 MSRP. The hybrid comes in at $22,600. The difference, $3,090. Now, this premium is what the pricing gurus have bet on as the premium you will pay, given not just your mental ability to calculate cost/benefit analysis, but the dominating psychology associated with a polluting environment, gas prices and global wars. The fact is that Honda has made quite a few concessions to the Civic Hybrid and a simple mpg comparison between the hybrid and non-hybrid versions is not apples to apples. The hybrid is 30 bhp less than the EX and has smaller wheels (done specially to eek out anoter couple of miles per gallon). This of course makes the $3,090 quite questionable. But, what about the fuel cost savings. Yes, those are there, but you are getting a lesser car at the same time. Shouldn't that even it out? And, what about those savings? Let's take a closer look. Generously assume the average driver does 12,000 miles per year. Let's take gas at $3/gallon (my prediction on gas prices for the summer of 2007, he he, let's see). For 12k miles, the EX will chuggle through 400 gallons in a year where as the hybrid will sip on 240 gallons. The savings: 160 gallons or $480 every year. Cost recorevery time frame on $3,090: OMG, 6.44 years! Thats a millenia these days. Hybrids could run out their entire lifetime cycle by then. Still worse, my eldest would be nearing college. I will be in financial hell. Last thing I will need is depression over how I got sidewinded again at the dealership over 6 years ago! And let's not even get into the battery depreciation cost (cause I dont have the info to write about it, he he).

Anyways, you know what, I still like these babies, twice already I forced myself to turn it down due to this ridiculous premium. Time to send the pricing gurus back to the drawing board. Take this comparison and look at the hybrid and non-hybrid versions of the Honda Accord V6 or the Toyota Camry. The Honda asks for a $5000 premium but not only do you retain all the power, the hybrid combo adds a small 13 bhp punch apparently kicking up acceleration a notch too. And its got run-flat tires plus other gadetry too. But the package is essentlially more sensical. However, at $30k+ and a lower 29mpg for a hybrid, this model smacks more of an enthusiast's production rather than a serious attempt at market. The Camry Hybrid, on the other hand, touts an impressive 39mpg and boosts bhp by 32 horses to 192 over its non-hybrid version with roughly a $5000 premium too. And its a looker. A friend of mine got one and we were drooling over its body and engine like it was a Porsche or something. What's wrong with us ? If you want this car, screw the calculations on recovering the premium cost with fuel savings. Thats gonna be years I'm sure. Its got 192bhp and 39mpg. And at $26,000 its priced to be bought. That's progress. A better mouse trap. A better car. Not a 100bhp, less than 3000 pounds car that gives you 50mpg.

Like I said, all of this is very good news. The hybrid downturn is a net upturn. We are going through some growing pains here. We are moving through days of feeble hybrids and their green psychology. That won't make a statement anymore. Look to 100mpg+ plug-in electircs for that kinda stuff. But don't get me started on that just yet. More on that later. We want real cars with 200bhp and 40mpg priced to sell. Go figure it out >>>>>>>

And hey, if you do own a Honda Civic Hybrid, here's something to make you feel a little better but don't be befooled by Charlie White's slip on the bhp of the car. If its was 140 I would have scooped it up a long time ago. Perhaps Charlie was merely resonating what should be. And, 0 - 60 in 12 secs ain't nothing to write home about. But still the car comes off rather nicely in the review and is generally quite well liked.....I think.

A WHAT ?

Its a hybrid! A carbon-based! No, perhaps it runs on fuel cells! Nay still! Alas! Its a...........TRIBRID! A What ? A tribrid. Or, more specifically, its called the 'Obvio'. Yes, a combination of not just two energy sources as in hybrids (gasoline+electic power) but three! Gasoline, Ethanol and electric power. The Obvio not only promises to unleash higher standards in fuel efficiency eyeing or even surpassing the oft spoken 100mpg mark, it also shoots to be quite the cultural and futuristic icon from Brazil designed by legendary car designer, painter and sculptor Anisio Campos. I can already see scores of to-see-and-be-seen Obvios painting the beaches along Brazil's rocky shores and matching the green bikinis of their owners (I imagined that, I have never been to Brazil, wife won't allow it). Anyway, snapping out of that mid-blog summer dream, a remarkable thing about the Obvio is that it can run on 100% Ethanol and would be the only car in the USA around mid-2007 to carry that boast. Moreover, it can take in a variety of gas/ethanol mix and tune out its mechanism to use that particular mix. Pretty cool. Bravo Brazil! If this keeps up, I may finally find a legitimate excuse to travel to Brazil though I fear its always going to be an uphill battle.Despite the Obvio's overtures into high track of new fuel technologies, it seems to be looking to mark itself out to be more the fashion item than a serious attempt at converting the landscape. The car is actually a full 4 feet shorter than the Mini Cooper (I didn't know that was possible!), another car that comes through more as a style statement. Take a look at the 2nd pic below. Get my gist? The makers of Obvio may be wise to take their little beauty to the humbler shores of cultural Europe. A natural for places like France, Portugal, Spain and Italy where small vehicles are certainly not frowned upon the way they are here by, as Borat the Kazak journalist (I gotta see this movie) would call us, idiot - Americans. Out here, I, the co-maker of americasmpg.com, myself have stumbled twice to trade-in my 240bhp V6 Sedan for a similar-sized 4-cylinder 30mpg car. Why? I live in the suburbs of Los Angeles, I see these 5.0L V8 SUVs blazing through our multi-plex of freeways and it gives me the creeps. These peitite wives and girlfriends of 200+ pounds college football player has-beens are in love with these monsters. Just cause they are elevated on the road also gives them the illusion that they should be going faster than anyone else. And I am all too happly to oblige in dispelling that illusion for them. As for now, I must concede, I have held on to my 240bhp car to be able to survive the Large SUV and Truck aero-dynamics created on the freeway, slay the higher-means-faster myth and work on efficiency regiments like the ones I have noted on www.americasmpg.com/regimenting.aspx. In Europe, serenity is au naturale, the country drive is craved, bicycles and mopeds are still steet side sights (travelling to boring Switzerland to visit my brother is A-OK by wife). And Asia too, I would reckon is a good target for the Obvio with the basic yet powerful premis of the smaller body dimension and weight of the average Asian. Not to mention the compact culture of Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore. Back to sprawling USA, manufacturers here are moving aggressively to hybrid exisiting car models and keep America's appetitie for power intact. One car that I see more than other hybrid-versions is the Toyata highlander V6 which takes a crack at 30mpg with 200+bhp at $30k+. Thats the deal for now folks. As for in my suburbia hometown outside LA, I wouldn't be caught dead in an Obvio, idiot-American.By all means, the Obvio will and should come to the US. Its success, I hope, is at least modest. And I, may well be wrong. In the vastness of America, there should be a place for it. And perhaps a special place in America's heart, if not the wallet. Specially, if the sexy chick next door embraces it into her beach life.

http://www.obvio.ind.br/obviona/home.htm

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/12/obvio_selects_l.html

Hybrid Car Production

I recently came across an article from the website of apparently a premier car battery consulting company and sadly it predicts that production of Hybrid vehicles will reach only 1,000,000 by the year 2009. This despite Toyota predicting that 2006 total Hybrid sales could reach 400,000 and Toyota will notch up a lion's share with 180,000 vehicles. God help us if we just more than double in 3 whole years. This smacks of political influence as the global oil oligopoly is too concerned about demand levels for crude oil and wishes to regulate production of alternative technologies. There is no reason why with hybrid versions of existing models combined that sales levels should not reach 2m or 3m by 2009. People are not just taking a cost view of buying these vehicles. There is the inestimable cleaner environment and political neutralizing motivations. 1m should be a target for totally non-petroleum cars like electric and hydrogen-based. Here's the brief article that appears right on top of this page.....

http://www.advancedautobat.com/market.html

Gas Prices

Its 11/02/06. One week to elections and the psychology is HOT. Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national price average of one gallon of petrol at $2.204 from $3.90 in 08/2005. The NYMEX Crude Oil Futures is listed at $58/bbl giving us no direction from the current levels of $56 - 58 /bbl.So is the current downtrend wave (apparently approaching its end-cycle) more of a factor of government/corporate manipulation, a pull back reaction from the $70/bbl hype-spike in the crude oil market from what was it - 6 months ago, or are consumption/demand factors adjusting quickly enough to force the powers that be to keep things calm enough and not prompt people to cancel trips and actions that drop overall revenue at the pump and makes it harder for the owners to meet overhead expenses.Despite all the political flak G. Bush picked up for Gas coming with in a hair of $4/gallon and Exxon-Mobil reporting $60 Big-Bs profit, I really doubt the guy even gave it much thought (that a good thing, isn't it ?). China, India and a host of developing countries are gonna need a whole lotta gas-feeding frenzy in the future. American trucking lifestyles is probably even bigger. Demand IS on the up and up. Prices need to rise and tame it.But how soon is now anyway ? Not that soon. Demand is going to rise substantially but not too sharply. The momentum to structure alternative fuels is sharp too. In the short term lifestyles can adjust and hybrid vehicles can build serious volumes (as they operate on the existing fuel delivery infrastructure). In the longer term, a host of alternatives will wage war and some choices like possibly hydrogen and electricity will prevail. Fossil fuels by no means are an endagered species. My bet is they are here to stay for some generations albiet not in domination. Global geo-political instability will play some part but it usually looks a lot bigger than it really is. And don't forget refining. Refining capacity should rise as some existing infrastructure is plugged back in. OPEC is talking about cutting back production again to stabilize price but perhaps there's more to life for them than just stuff like that. Low gas prices are a short term economic boost. If they take motivation away from alternatives then its not healthy. Look for prices at the pump to start re-scaling towards $3/gallon for the summer of 2007. Its a good level. Good for both sides. Good for me ? We'll find out in the summer.Links for this blog entry.....

http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx?time=24

http://www.americasmpg.com/EIA.aspx

And now, to let it loosen a bit, enjoy.............

Tesla Roadster

The Tesla Roadster is being launched by a group out of Nothern California with every intention of turning heads and plenty of overture on the current energy psychology. Google's Sergey Brin and Larry Paige are reportedly amongst the sponsors. Its all electric and all business. In the energy wars, it seems, that electricity is not to be outdone in any corner by gasoline. Time will tell us more. The price of sticking your tongue out at your neighbour's gasoline-based Porsche 911 while out-accelerating it with 0 - 60mph in 4 secs : $100,000 with a $75,000 reservation deposit. But watchout, your neighbour may get to return the favor later as the Roadster touts a top speed of only 130mph. However, you both may not live to tell the tale. So, certainly a neat trick and you have our attention tesla. Hopefully, it won't remain an electric dream too long for us mere mortals. For now, check out a hybrid or something at your local dealer.

It does make me wonder what will happen to California's electricity crisis if there was an explosion in electric cars. I wasn't happy with my $400/month summer bills and I'd get up at 1am to turn the AC off and let in the cool desert winds. My neighbours were literally crying. I still fare a little better with self-renewing batteries coupled with a small combustion engine. The Hybrid. Oh well.

http://www.teslamotor.com/