A Muddy Milieu

An interesting and somewhat mysterious feature of new technology debate is the viability or productivity aspect. Almost all tooted technologies from electric batteries, electric plug-in, hydrogen fuel cells and bio-fuels are oft attacked that they consume far more energy than they provide. Ethanol takes a barrage of blows for the fossil fuels required to produce it and its voracious appetite for land irrigation while Hydrogen's energy input versus output disproportion gets a vitriolic licking from quarters eager to enlighten the world for how dumb we are for even considering these options. Not even car batteries are spared when the pundits shed their lair. To further muddy the waters we have breaking technologies like ultra-capacitors and synthetic coal. This leaves the layman like myself in a spin who then need to turn to common sense to see what appears to be viable and has surrounding validating factors. A lot of people who possess esoteric knowledge post their technology validation claims rather wantonly on many blogs. And scientists have been wrong about the future as many times a new invention comes around.

Hydrogen suffers from criticisms on the cost in energy of extracting the molecular form and lack of infrastructure that can deliver it. Ethanol and bio-fuels too have large energy value and infrastructure questions. And this fuel lobby is political which does not auger well with market economy principals. Plug-in electrics are criticized for pressuring the electricity system and HEVs are a sag for the cost of battery replacement and the electric drive train.

When I posted a question on Yahoo Answers! (see previous blog) as to which technology could reach some level of pervasiveness in the future most said that Lithium batteries sounded the most promising (upheld by Tesla Roadster fame) and that a distant second would be Hydrogen fuel cells.

In the milieu of breaking grounds don't underestimate the come-back power of crude oil. From observations alone, this natural resource is designed to provide us with energy and for centuries now oil and its many forms have served us remarkably well. Its power will not be easy to overcome. If crude oil slips to $40/bbl a lot of us will have to re-hash our financial and economic templates on sought-after new fuels. For those who question new fuels' net energy contribution after factorting what it costs in terms of electricity and fossil fuels to arrive at the new fuel, one should take the same aim with gasoline. Gasoline is pervasive, accepted and paid for. After exploration, drilling, refining and distribution how upside down would gasoline be? Yet you can place a price on all that with profit and people will pay for it. Economies of scale makes it viable. Wouldn't the same apply to new fuels. I come across comments all the time that why do we purseue Hydrogen fuel cells when the output energy is electricity. Why bother? Why not just work on direct electricity if that is what the end result would be anyway. Well, you have to consider if you can what it will look like after economies of scale. Can electrolysis produce a magnitude of fuel cells that can out perform the production process. The only viable answer that we have right now is that if Chevrolet and Honda have come this far with it then hopefully its more than just a hobby and they seem to think it can.

To Whom Does The Future Belong ?

To whom does the future belong ? In the field of car energy sources there are many contenders. Just take a look below. I recently posted the question on Yahoo Answers! (a Q&A portal with an estimated 30 million visitors a month). Surprisingly, I got more of a response than expected. A small number of answers but one good enough for the top 100 open questions in their 'Cars & Transportation' section. Thought I'd post a link here and if you'd like I would really be interested in knowing your response too.

Competing Alternative Energies

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Car batteries

Bio Fuels

Liquid Hydrogen

Hydrogen Fuel Cells

Ultra Capacitors

Coal based Synthetic or Coal-to-liquid

Other ??

WHICH NEW CAR ENERGY WOULD YOU BET YOUR MONEY ON ??

HEV Next Generation Insight ?

Hybrid Electric Vehicles have become a force to be reckoned with. They span a wide variety of cars from the ultra efficient (50mpg+ Prius) to the ulta powerful (300bhp+ Lexus 450GH). Annual sales of HEVs is approaching 500,000 units. People from all walks of life have embraced it from movie stars to ex-truck owners. And now, the next generation of HEVs may well be ready to be launched with some exciting enhancements. Worldcarfans.com claims to have some insight imagery as well as data on the great expectation: the next generation of the dominant HEV, the Toyota Prius. It won't be any news to a car energy follower that Nickel Hydride battery is being replaced with the Ion Lithium technology (the kind used by the all electric Tesla Roadster). The Ion Lithium charge will lead efficiency expected to aim the 80mpg mark. Horsepower should see a lift due to a bigger 1.8L (currently 1.5) engine and the Ion Lithium. Thank God for that. Still, the most exciting feature of this baby would be the Solar panel roof. Solar is probably the most overlooked energy source and I am surprised that I don't come across more discussions on it. Especially in places like California with its sunny (and smoggy) skies and some 20 million cars.

True? Its a 2008 so we shall know later this year.

THE NEXT GEN TOYOTA PRIUS ??