To 2007 - The Road Ahead (and GSD)

This is my 20th and last blog entry of 2006 after a late start to fairly serious blogging a couple of months ago. As the year draws to a close there is a tremendous feeling of a world of accomplishment in car energy innovation and yet an equally powerful sense of the amount of work that needs to be done. No doubt, the world has taken to the pursuit and there is no looking back. The future is intriguing and bright. If there is one element that promises to be on most watch lists its the burgeoning buzz of ultra capacitors. A technology that seeks to improve the power of Nickel Metal Hydride batteries (most utilized in today's electric hybrids) many fold while reducing charge time.

As I take account of the task ahead I need to look no further than myself. When I launched myself into measure and action, I started to track my miles and gas consumption. After a measly 8 trips to review (i know that's not nearly anything) I still got a sense of the level of consumption that I find myself anchored in and the truism that lies there in when people call it a 'gas guzzling' habit. Anyone who has been benevolent enough to discover some of what americasmpg.com is about would know that we have propagated the measure of actual gas consumption along with MPG as an anchor to the responsibility of efficiency.

In 2006, my worst trip showed that I devoured 4.7 gallons of gas per day and the best one was 0.94 gallons per day. I'm glad I ended the year with an overall average below 3 gallons a day. But, to think of it. Consuming 2.85 gallons every day. $7.60 per day. $2,800 for the year. And that's off just one car. I suspect this to be higher than the national average as it comes from a city with a token structure and no culture of public transportation. However, with great problems come great opportunities. And if consumption drops 0.5 gallons per day then that's an incentive of $500 a year right there. Or one car payment plus insurance for most of us. I think 2.35 gallons per car per day would be a good target for me in 2007. On the MPG side, guess what (I had no idea this would happen), but my worst trip in terms of consumption or GSD (Gallons Spend Daily) turned out to be the best in MPG. Not surprising at all. A few hours on the freeway and that's all it takes. The best trip in GSD turned out to be the worst in MPG. Now, that was surprising. Doesn't have to be that way. Just a co-incidence. I must have known that I was sooooo kicking butt in GSD that I started flooring the gas pedal off stops whenever I could. And why not? I deserved it! This does not mean that MPG is defunct as a measure. MPG is how the carmaker works on efficiency. GSD is how the driver does. And while GSD will have limits - one can pretty much exhaust efficiency enhancement after several trips - MPG efficiency will continue to grow with new technology in exciting ways.

After some feedback from friends and one or two of you I have worked some enhancements into the tracking which will now capture a 3 month rolling average and an overall average of how many gallons are being consumed every day (the GSD). Here are links to the page on regiments as well as the tracking sheet and my own sheet:

Regiments page
My tracking spreadsheet

Generic tracking spreadsheet

Oh, I also added a provision for if you decide to change cars you can just note the new car and on which trip the tracking switches over to the new car.

A very very happy, prosperous and less gaseous new year to you ALL !!! I know I need it.

More Than Meets the Eye

I recently posted a question to Yahoo Answers and was quite avowed by the answerer who pointed to a number of obscure companies under the surface that are offering or soon expected to offer EVs (Electric Vehicles). In the hi-exposure world of the Tesla Roadsters and the big car maker hybrids we tend to forget that innovation is most robust with the start-ups and the zeal of the small player looking to make it big. The question is given below and linked to its page. I also took the liberty of posting the links to the LIKEs (LIttle Known Electic-vehicles) below the question:

A 339hp, 26mpg hybrid-electric vehicle! Or a pure electric sports car! Fashion hype or a view to the future ?

Links to LIKEs:

Phoenix Motorcars

The XS2000 by Miles Automotive Group

Squidoo

Zap Cars

The EEStor Bunny

Disrupting has become rather fashionable. To the point that people talk about disrupting the disruptor. A disruptor's success cycle to ubiquity and riches is today faster than ever thanks to the world of venture capitalism that is rapacious in its appetite for the brave and the new. No sooner would a successful disruptor be established and catching breath that new disruptors would appear on its tail. Is that what hydrogen fuel cells may be to electric batteries for cars? Probably not.

One company that is making high claims to disrupt the nascent community of alternative automotive energy is EESTOR, a company based out of Austin, Texas. Characteristically secretive about its technology, it has ironically, perhaps not without intent, gained much attention. Information available on the web reveals that EESTOR is in the business of developing ultracapacitors, a higher form of battery, that will produce electric power. EESTOR's ultracapacitors will produce electric power better and bigger than ever before. An article from Business 2.0 claims that this breaking device is soooo powerful that it can charge up in 5 minutes to provide a 500 mile driving range in a cost which equates to $9 today - and not just to puny 100bhp cars but the kind of power that could carry a large SUV. EESTOR's technology is already scheduled to be incorporated into vehicles manufactured by a Green Canadian company known as Feel Good Cars. On Nov. 15, in a press release by Feel Good Cars the following was revealed:

"On September, 30, 2005, FGC entered into a Technology Agreement with EEStor Inc. located in Austin, Texas, to acquire the exclusive worldwide right to purchase high-power-density ceramic ultra capacitors called Electrical Storage Units (ESU) that are under development by that company. An ESU can store over 10 times the energy of lead-acid batteries and are expected to be available for use in the ZENN and regular electrically powered small cars. FGC's exclusive worldwide right is for all personal transportation uses under 15 KW drive systems (equivalent to 100 peak horse power) and for vehicles with a curb weight of under 1200 kilograms not including batteries."

This is very good news for FGC whose current car brand know as the Zenn leaves much to be desired. I'm sorry but after reading the following advertisement from their website I could not help but laughing. And its not the kind of laugh that people gave to electric cars 10 years ago. But the kind that you get after the release of the Tesla Roadster that accelerates to 60mph in 4 seconds, can reach 130mph and push past 200 miles off one charge..........

ZENN not only looks like a car; it performs like one, too. Equipped with front-wheel drive, brisk acceleration and capable of achieving a regulated maximum speed of 25 mph (40 km/h), it keeps pace with traffic on local streets to get you where you’re going safely and in good time. And ZENN’s battery efficiency gives you the freedom to cover a lot of ground: approximately 35 miles per charge (56 kilometres).

Well, looks like such painful advertising is all about to change for FGC and that they may well end up with the last laugh here. What the relationship between EEstor and FGC is and why EEstor has partnered with a non-conventional car maker remains a mystery too. So, the ultracapacitors aim to accomplish 10 times of what today's batteries can do. That's a significant achievement. EEStor and FGC have certainly attracted not just attention but money from Venture Capital firms to further validate their claim.

This is wonderful news that is set to further the already growing market of hybrid electrics, the expected Plug-in hybrid electrics and pure electric cars. The continuing force of invention and disruption has tremendous potential and some complications too. The complication being that technology getting outdated soon and thus the value of the car. For those of us choosing to invest in a car that employs some form of alternative energy the reasons should be overwhelmingly Green. To be on the safe side, look to depreciate the car over 4 years flat. And don't lease.

In case you are still wondering, why 'EEstor Bunny'? Despite the hallow overtone, the actual reference is to - remember the 'Energizer Bunny' ? The one that kept going, and going, and going........

Click here for source article

Hybrid Sales & Crud Oil Data

The latest data on sales of HEVs (Hybrid Electric Vehicles) is encouraging. After the market took some pundit-bashing due to lower gas prices and product uncertainties like longevity & cost of battery, the numbers rebounded posting an 18.3% rise in 11/2006 vs. 11/2005. The total number of HEVs sold in November were 18,283 units. To put this more into perspective, its a 430% increase over the 4,252 HEVs that were sold in 01/2004. This also coincides with the NYMEX crude oil futures dropping slightly 50 cents to $63.22. Its being resisted quite strongly at $65 despite announcements by OPEC that they will be cutting production. The two pieces of data are not related. At least, not yet. But its nice to see them together. The day that crude oil is impacted owing to breaking news in alternative car energy is, I reckon, closer than a lot of us think. The crude oil data is being rationalized with warmer winter temperatures leading to lower energy requirements. Again, that is, for now.

Anyway, getting back to the HEV data. For me, the most endearing piece of news is that sales of the Toyota Camry Hybrid have really taken off breaking the 3,000 units mark and now constitute almost 10% of the most sold Toyota model in the USA. Compare that to the Honda Civic Hybrid which has been around for a couple of years and sold only 2,208 units. The answer is simple and I elaborated it in my earlier blog entry titled 'Hybrid Reality Check'. I'll refrain from elaborating. Basically, the Camry Hybrid is close to 200bhp and 40mpg. A killer combo at $26,000. Honda needs to get its act together. The Civic Hybrid needs to deliver at least the 140bhp to match its EX trim. If they do that - I will buy one even if it does not make complete economic sense. Other cars that are doing well with growth are the Ford Escape and Mercury Mariner HEVs. Toyota, with its Prius/Camry/Highlander and a string of Lexus HEVs, took the lion's share of the market.

I also read an article on mixedpower.com that Nissan execs have been complaining about HEVs not being profitable. I would like to see the analysis. Is it due to not reaching break-even? Are they also saying HEVs will not be profitable at 2 million units per year ? And, if that is true, why are they building HEVs and earger to join the market? Afraid of something? The future? What might happen if they don't? Execs they may be but people ain't stupid. Especially in the age of blogging. Further crap exists in the area of HEV battery life and replacement cost. After checking out a myriad blogs and sites, I don't think its 5 years and $5000. It rings more like 7 years and $3000. And after 7 years, with far bigger market, the cost will be lower.

Source articles:

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/12/us_sales_of_hyb.html

http://mixedpower.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=1306

The Fuel Cell

The hydrogen based technology that runs on fuel cells may well be the Jewel in the crown of new vehicle-powering technologies. Why's that? Because unlike liquid hydrogen, ethanol & gasoline and more like electric cars: it makes a complete break from the combustion engine. Fuel cells work a lot like batteries. There is a an electro-chemical reaction that converts the hydrogen fuel cells into electricity thus powering the car. Despite the electric power, there are vapor emissions due to the hydrogen and oxygen reaction but its only water vapor. The fuel cells are placed on stacks and this appears to be a key development area in the science which probably needs work and solutions before the technology is market ready. Case in point: Chevy Equinox's fuel cell stack is good for 50,000 miles only owing to corrosion occurring from the reactions. Honda FCX is impressive in that it will run for 350 miles in one stretch over the Equinox's 200 miles. An apparent advantage Hydrogen Fuel Cells seem to have over liquid hydrogen is that hydrogen does not have to be maintained in its liquid form 420 degrees below zero which is costly. The hydrogen fuel cells are kept on the stacks. Oxygen flows in and reacts and out flows electricity. I put this question out on Yahoo Answers. Let's see what we get:
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=AlbB66Pa_TtUQvMGAejUx04jzKIX?qid=20061217082828AAzBR4Q

I was recently at the LA Auto show and both these cars were amongst the exciting stops for me. While Honda's is the concept car and makes a better futuristic statement, Chevy brings an exciting technology into the everyday SUV life and has quicker plans of starting special leases by late 2007. If you would like to participate in the special test lease program you can check to see if there is a fueling station near you on the following URL: http://www.chevrolet.com/fuelcell/checkzipcode/ .

I am not to be amongst the lucky ones that can lottery in for a fuel cell Equinox. Another terribly exciting break in this technology is that GM actually has a home based fueling station prototype ready to re-fill the fuel cell stacks. A great break and contribution coming from an American car company too often dumped on for its lack luster position in the world of cars and the future of cars. No doubt, such toys will be very expensive for the layman but the techno rich guys and regular rich folk who have gone green will scoop 'em like hot cakes. More importantly, it signals the beginnings of the era which looks like its destined to reach the masses. Take a look:
http://www.engadget.com/2006/10/04/gm-developing-home-based-hydrogen-filling-station/

I'm sure and very excited that there's gonna be much to report on this front in the coming months. When I started writing about this technology as the 'Jewel in the Crown', I had no idea that I would stumble across such an apt video to the statement. So my profuse thanks to user InaElly of YouTube who discovered and probably gave the overture to this jewel of a clip. Too bad she won't tell us where she got it. Ladies & gentlemen, Honda's FCX Fuel Cells car.....

Conventional Wisdom

Watch out Toyota and Honda!

Boy am I impressed with what Nissan has done with its 2007 Altima. That's what I have been talking about folks. A full size sedan weighing in at over 3000 lbs. with 175bhp that has city/fwy average of 30 miles per gallon! Way to go Nissan! By comparison both the Honda Accord and Toyota Camry fall about 1 or 2 mpg short and cost an extra $2 - 3k. It matches the Honda Civic in MPG for Pete's sake! And, its a looker too. Sharp and catchy designing on the interior and exterior.

No longer are we confined to sacrifice by keeping smaller sedans if we want to stay atop the 30mpg mark. The mark has moved and others need to catch up. Nissan is also launching a hybrid version of the Altima by April 2007 that will join the Camry Hybrid amongst 40mpg family sedans. All wonderful news.

While we turn heads at the foray of vehicles pouring out of new technology it is easy to miss the sheer magnitude of the market that lives off the conventional fossil fuel. And hence, a small dent in this area goes a long long way. Nissan will probably sell more Altimas alone than the entire hybrid electric market in 2007. And so its commendable that they have taken the charge and come out on top in the fuel efficiency category of the economy family sedan market.

Like I said, Honda & Toyota, do take note.

LA Auto Show 2006

Awright folks, much as you love them sometimes words need to be put to rest and pictures do the talking. So here is my collage of the 2006 LA Auto show. I ditched the Alternative Cars show in Santa Monica for this one to see how things look inside the mainstream. I was not disappointed. Don't expect to see any Ferraris or Lamborghinis here. But Marketa, featured to your right, is no less.

Enjoy the pics............

LA Auto Show Photos

Crude Oil resisted below $65

In the blog entry that I wrote on 11/19/2006 about crude oil hitting a 1 year low at $55 I reckoned that crude oil should be range bound to $45 - $65 a barrel. I know this is wide. But recently it picked up again and was eyeing the $65 mark before being pushed down again at now rests at around $61. OPEC (the middle east oil exporting block which is the largest in the world) has said it can scale back production by 1.2m barrels a day. They like keeping prices on the higher side. Another big reason being sighted is warmer than expected weather in the northern US.

Will crude oil make a break towards the $50 level? OPEC will resist it. But, if global warming is for real.....who knows? Just stay cool. Anyway, a better range would be $70 - $50. I think it will come close to both levels in the next 12 months. The average price of gas at the pump in the US is $2.285 today slightly up from a month ago as per www.gasbuddy.com. That prediction didn't go as well. But we still have 2 weeks before the end of the year. Plenty of time to drop.

BMW & Liquid Hydrogen

The battle for the next frontier in fueling tomorrow's vehicles is on and the great BMW car company is not to be ignored. So BMW announced that its going to have a road-ready hydrogen-based car hit the deck in its well known 7 series model sometime in late 2007. In fact, its does not run entirely on liquid hydrogen. In fact, its a hybrid. The car will retain a gasoline tank. More exciting than this market version is BMW's true hydrogen -experiment car, the H2R, which is not a hybrid. The 2 cars boldly signal BMW's bet on liquid hydrogen as a major energy source in the future. And why not? Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the Universe, it can be recycled, its emissions are far less polluting and hydrogen, unlike Ethanol, burns faster and at a lower temperature than gasoline (which I assume means the same thing as generating more power). All of this is an easy peasy sell. We need to take note of liquid hydrogen as a serious contender in the field of energy exploration.

Real quick, liquid hydrogen is a combustable fuel like gasoline. Fuel cells, in contrast, work more like car batteries. A fuel cell, also based on hydrogen, is put through a chemical reaction and electric power is generated to drive the vehicle.

Given liquid hydrogen's potency it can pass up as a little disappointing that BMW's Hydrogen 7 will carry an alternative gasoline fuel tank (probably to keep it marketable as access to liquid hydrogen will continue to be scarce), its 6.0L V-12 engine will only churn out 256 bhp and will accelerate 0-60mph in a lame 9 seconds. But its too harsh to criticize such inadequacies in light of the 1st marketable car that can run on liquid hydrogen. In fact, in that light it should be considered impressive. If only Tesla Motor Company had not spoiled the psychology by launching its inaugral all-electric car that electricutes the 0-60mpg accleleration criteria in 4 seconds! This is also where a luxury auto-makers are disadvantaged in the market. BMW will struggle where Toyota succeeds with its Prius, Honda could with its fuel-cell FCX (expected in 2008) and Chevrolet could too with the fuel-cells version of the Equinox SUV(also for 2008). The luxury auto-maker will be pricing the car out of reach for a market mass that is more willing to buy green experimental cars. The 7 series decision is also surprising. I would have gone for the 3 series. At least it has better price reach, a lot of young people strive to own one and the young are more ready to buy the new. But, its possible that technicals may be too tough right now to fit all the components of a liquid hydrogen car into a compact frame. The liquid hydrgen has to be maintained at 420 degrees below zero which must require some serious hardware in the car. The BMW Hydrogen 7 will reach an impressive 143mph.

But any disappointment from the Hydrogen 7 will quickly be run over by BMW H2R. The real eye-catcher and hydrogen gem. Its rocket like appearance is not deceiving. This baby also sports a 6.0L V-12 engine but will achieve the 0 -60mph in a far more respectable 6 seconds and will go on to a whopping top speed of 187mph. All of it on liquid hydrogen. The experiment car does much better to win hearts.

Like other major combustable alternative fuel of Ethanol, liquid hydrogen would suffer from the same challenge of if it will ever earn enough faith and luck for investment in a large enough fuel delivery infrastructure that is also profitable. At least one thing seems to be fairly obvious: Hydrogen won't require exploration. It is abundantly available which itself should give it a huge upper hand on cost. An exciting source and one that comes out on top amongst the combustable fuels.

The Real Measure (not MPG)

Though the MPG efficiency-measure sits crowning in our visions, perceptions and naming of my website, its not the merit it is cropped up to be. Underneath and hidden, as is often the case, lies the truth. When I first started to track my car's mileage about a year ago I first realized that I would need to figure out that magical surface and environment that causes the 20/29 mpg figures to materialize. My trips were averaging out between 16/22 mpg. But the good thing was that it wasn't that important. I could chalk up an attractive MPG number while pillaging the earth by burning through 16 gallons of petrol in 6 hours. So I knew that I needed something else as a measure. Something that showed me how good or bad a boy I'd really been. And, as luck would have it, I came up with DGS (Daily Gallons Spent). Simply, the volume of fuel you spend in between trips to the pump divided by the number of days in between the trips to the pump. After adding another couple of columns to the Excel spreadsheet I was able to see the actual levels of fuel I was consuming.

And it is with deep pride that I announce that I clocked my best DGS to date on 11/30/06 coming out to 0.97. Under one gallon of fuel per day. DGS measures opposite to MPG. Less is more. I was compelled to do it as I shamefully had been spending 3 - 4 gallons per day previously. Some tailwinds were there no doubt but I had to force my attention to regiments like car pooling when I could, consolidating trips and keeping a light foot on the pedal. While many cars now can report trip MPGs and total overall MPG this doesn't carry much meaning to it and while its probable that these do help the cause its hardly the crux of the matter. Overall, we have to look at MPG because its the only way to measure on a large scale. A car manufacturer has no idea of your driving appetite or habits.

I have now started posting my spreadsheet to my website so you can see how my trips are coming out and also how far removed the official MPG stats are from what we are able to manage in our cities and freeways. Here's a link to the sheet.....
www.americasmpg.com/My_FST.xls