Hybrid Sales & Crud Oil Data

The latest data on sales of HEVs (Hybrid Electric Vehicles) is encouraging. After the market took some pundit-bashing due to lower gas prices and product uncertainties like longevity & cost of battery, the numbers rebounded posting an 18.3% rise in 11/2006 vs. 11/2005. The total number of HEVs sold in November were 18,283 units. To put this more into perspective, its a 430% increase over the 4,252 HEVs that were sold in 01/2004. This also coincides with the NYMEX crude oil futures dropping slightly 50 cents to $63.22. Its being resisted quite strongly at $65 despite announcements by OPEC that they will be cutting production. The two pieces of data are not related. At least, not yet. But its nice to see them together. The day that crude oil is impacted owing to breaking news in alternative car energy is, I reckon, closer than a lot of us think. The crude oil data is being rationalized with warmer winter temperatures leading to lower energy requirements. Again, that is, for now.

Anyway, getting back to the HEV data. For me, the most endearing piece of news is that sales of the Toyota Camry Hybrid have really taken off breaking the 3,000 units mark and now constitute almost 10% of the most sold Toyota model in the USA. Compare that to the Honda Civic Hybrid which has been around for a couple of years and sold only 2,208 units. The answer is simple and I elaborated it in my earlier blog entry titled 'Hybrid Reality Check'. I'll refrain from elaborating. Basically, the Camry Hybrid is close to 200bhp and 40mpg. A killer combo at $26,000. Honda needs to get its act together. The Civic Hybrid needs to deliver at least the 140bhp to match its EX trim. If they do that - I will buy one even if it does not make complete economic sense. Other cars that are doing well with growth are the Ford Escape and Mercury Mariner HEVs. Toyota, with its Prius/Camry/Highlander and a string of Lexus HEVs, took the lion's share of the market.

I also read an article on mixedpower.com that Nissan execs have been complaining about HEVs not being profitable. I would like to see the analysis. Is it due to not reaching break-even? Are they also saying HEVs will not be profitable at 2 million units per year ? And, if that is true, why are they building HEVs and earger to join the market? Afraid of something? The future? What might happen if they don't? Execs they may be but people ain't stupid. Especially in the age of blogging. Further crap exists in the area of HEV battery life and replacement cost. After checking out a myriad blogs and sites, I don't think its 5 years and $5000. It rings more like 7 years and $3000. And after 7 years, with far bigger market, the cost will be lower.

Source articles:

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/12/us_sales_of_hyb.html

http://mixedpower.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=1306