Every Dog Has Its Day

If every dog is to have its day then these days the dog would be Toyota. Its not paramount that the company has surpassed General Motors in the volumes of business it conducts. They have been making better automobiles and captured the public's interest and respect well before that. Known for almost unreal dependability and durability the company is now footing itself to dominate the HEV domain - the only type of new-technology vehicle that has any semblance of a real market with expected units sold this year set to test the 300,000 mark. A small number by any standard but one that grew by 52% in Feb 2007 vs. Feb 2006. Total HEV units sold in 02/2007 were 22,998. The Toyota Prius took its share of this performance upwards of 50% and that does not include all the other HEV cars that Toyota sells including the Camry, Highlander and the Lexus models.

If the Prius keeps this up it could well end up being the car that defines a new generation of design and engineering. Despite the fact that its more of a big city phenomenon where gas is expensive and commutes are long, it has never the less demonstrated a popular appeal amongst many classes of drivers including the young (who want to change the world). In California, you can't be driving around in several of its cities without seeing many of them in the course of a day. Upon first glance it comes across as puny and too futuristic in style. Its small and light alright but not as much as you'd think. I see them cruising at 70mph+ every day. The style appeal is somewhat surprising but without much choice in the market it seems to have pulled through. And now that it has sizable and visible numbers on the road the design may spark a new era of car sketching that could start to break away from the status quo. Toyota may be the most successful and robust company today. Its breadth and reach is astonishing when you span through Lexus range of cars. Its the only Japanese economy brand that has broken into the true luxury mind set of the buyer. Infiniti from Nissan ranks a strong second while Honda's Acura has struggled. Lexus commands a spot next to the luxury greats and now I myself have come across several owners who would rank it as a greater feat of quality engineering and luxury modeling than the time-honored German greats.

To Live and To Learn

Its now been 4 months since I started blogging on the subject. A subject that I had researched little into and one with many technical scores. Yet an exciting debate raged and I found myself mindful of the discussion and for ways to improve the efficiency of my own energy consumption. So I picked up on some know-how and with a little bit of common sense went on to start blogging. I also did it to learn about the subject and network with others on it in the hope of picking up some knowledge for myself. And in some ways it has. Well, I was stupid and ignorant enough to sense that shifting into a non-fossil fuel source somehow causes an improvement of resource efficiency. As I saw electric hybrid cars breaking out into the market it gave me the impression that the electric-hybrid version of a car is actually doing more out of the same energy input than its non HEV version. I bought into it. Others did too. Some went out and bought HEVs thinking that. The naked truth is that while there will always be invention and innovation some truths will never change. And one of those truth is that energy can neither be created nor destroyed, it can only be converted or shifted. If your HEV has a nickel hydrite battery then process and resources were expended to put that equipment into your HEV. Hence, unless all the processes and resources can be quantifyed and put into the equation, only then can you size it up and see if your HEV's car battery is producing any real return in terms of efficiency. Given the law of physics I just mentioned it probably is not. Still, such vehicles will gain popularity. Because they suggest efficiency. They support it. And they bring cause and struggle to the domain. Do they have any real value? I believe they do. They will certainly have value in convenience. Less trips to the gas station. Reduced dependence on gasoline. And perhaps even enhanced performance at the lower $ market levels. And the advent of new ways and technologies that breaks out of the mundane. Still, it is important to keep some sight of the fundamentals and principals and not get totally duped by marketing campaigns.

Some fallacies are beautifully crafted. You almost cannot blame anyone for falling into them. The jolly old joker would even argue that you would want to fall into it. One such farcical drollery that I picked up a long time ago is when car salesmen tell you that you can give up the 'cash back' option on a car's purchase price for the 0% financing. But its not 0%. The cash back that you just gave up is the interest. Its added upfront. But its sooooo good that flocks will fall to it till the end of time. Perhaps the one that bothers me the most is the one that accountants perhpas unwittingly sell all the time. In a pre-dinner discussion at a friend's house in north LA last year I watched in horror as one of the guests pounded on the merits of interest only mortgage loans and their whopping benefit in tax deductions. That as a result he was paying far less taxes and just laughing to the bank. Which bank is that? You couldn't convince him otherwise. Especially now that he had bought the loan. The truth is that the only way you get a tax deduction outside of statutes is through expenditure. For this particularly wise man-of-the-world he was only getting a deduction for what he paid out in interest. Just because you got a bigger refund check means nothing. You paid for that refund. Well over.

Anyways, you get the gist. You wanna be green. Stop the car. And walk..........

Link............

HEV Next Generation Insight ?

Hybrid Electric Vehicles have become a force to be reckoned with. They span a wide variety of cars from the ultra efficient (50mpg+ Prius) to the ulta powerful (300bhp+ Lexus 450GH). Annual sales of HEVs is approaching 500,000 units. People from all walks of life have embraced it from movie stars to ex-truck owners. And now, the next generation of HEVs may well be ready to be launched with some exciting enhancements. Worldcarfans.com claims to have some insight imagery as well as data on the great expectation: the next generation of the dominant HEV, the Toyota Prius. It won't be any news to a car energy follower that Nickel Hydride battery is being replaced with the Ion Lithium technology (the kind used by the all electric Tesla Roadster). The Ion Lithium charge will lead efficiency expected to aim the 80mpg mark. Horsepower should see a lift due to a bigger 1.8L (currently 1.5) engine and the Ion Lithium. Thank God for that. Still, the most exciting feature of this baby would be the Solar panel roof. Solar is probably the most overlooked energy source and I am surprised that I don't come across more discussions on it. Especially in places like California with its sunny (and smoggy) skies and some 20 million cars.

True? Its a 2008 so we shall know later this year.

THE NEXT GEN TOYOTA PRIUS ??

Crafty Concepts

Here's a couple of crafty concept cars built on technologies that looks to conserve and looks that seek to tempt. Both are from car companies at the fore front of advancement. Toyota has taken charge of the Hybrid Electric market while Honda's Variable Cylinder Management is a cool mechanism.

Toyota's FT-HS Concept pictured above is a hybrid electric that is likely drawing on the Lexus GH450 3.5L V6 drive-train and will deliver 400bhp as well as 0-60mph in less than 5 seconds with an MPG boast too. The best number may still be the expected less than $40,000 price tag. Times certainly have changed. These figures used to be the domain of for-the-rich-only cars.

Honda has released its 8th generation styling for the Accord Coupe. Honda promises added performance (possibly 300bhp which should be good for 0-60 in less than 6 seconds) and its Variable Cylinder Management (VCM). VCM is a great mechanism that shuts down 2 cylinders in the V6 at higher speeds when due to inertia the extra 2 cylinders are practically worthless. This technology is already available in the 2006 and newer Honda Odyssey models. A hybrid electric version could follow in 2009. Pricing is expected in the low $30,000s.

Hybrid Sales & Crud Oil Data

The latest data on sales of HEVs (Hybrid Electric Vehicles) is encouraging. After the market took some pundit-bashing due to lower gas prices and product uncertainties like longevity & cost of battery, the numbers rebounded posting an 18.3% rise in 11/2006 vs. 11/2005. The total number of HEVs sold in November were 18,283 units. To put this more into perspective, its a 430% increase over the 4,252 HEVs that were sold in 01/2004. This also coincides with the NYMEX crude oil futures dropping slightly 50 cents to $63.22. Its being resisted quite strongly at $65 despite announcements by OPEC that they will be cutting production. The two pieces of data are not related. At least, not yet. But its nice to see them together. The day that crude oil is impacted owing to breaking news in alternative car energy is, I reckon, closer than a lot of us think. The crude oil data is being rationalized with warmer winter temperatures leading to lower energy requirements. Again, that is, for now.

Anyway, getting back to the HEV data. For me, the most endearing piece of news is that sales of the Toyota Camry Hybrid have really taken off breaking the 3,000 units mark and now constitute almost 10% of the most sold Toyota model in the USA. Compare that to the Honda Civic Hybrid which has been around for a couple of years and sold only 2,208 units. The answer is simple and I elaborated it in my earlier blog entry titled 'Hybrid Reality Check'. I'll refrain from elaborating. Basically, the Camry Hybrid is close to 200bhp and 40mpg. A killer combo at $26,000. Honda needs to get its act together. The Civic Hybrid needs to deliver at least the 140bhp to match its EX trim. If they do that - I will buy one even if it does not make complete economic sense. Other cars that are doing well with growth are the Ford Escape and Mercury Mariner HEVs. Toyota, with its Prius/Camry/Highlander and a string of Lexus HEVs, took the lion's share of the market.

I also read an article on mixedpower.com that Nissan execs have been complaining about HEVs not being profitable. I would like to see the analysis. Is it due to not reaching break-even? Are they also saying HEVs will not be profitable at 2 million units per year ? And, if that is true, why are they building HEVs and earger to join the market? Afraid of something? The future? What might happen if they don't? Execs they may be but people ain't stupid. Especially in the age of blogging. Further crap exists in the area of HEV battery life and replacement cost. After checking out a myriad blogs and sites, I don't think its 5 years and $5000. It rings more like 7 years and $3000. And after 7 years, with far bigger market, the cost will be lower.

Source articles:

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/12/us_sales_of_hyb.html

http://mixedpower.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=1306

Power Hybrids

This entry, I'd like to cover the subject of 'Power Hybrids' - a piece to which I credit 3 cars as follows: The Lexus GS450h, the Honda Accord V6 Hybrid and the Toyota Highlander V6 Hybrid. Power Hybrids. What does it mean? Why are they here? What do we do with them? Do I know? Probably not. Still, lets have some fun and explore.

Let's not save the best for last. We will start with the Lexus. Is it muscle flexing? Or a sharp take on what luxury consumers are looking for? Rather than mull much over why its here we should really be glad it is. For many reasons of course but let's look at some starkly scientific ones through some raw facts. At first, when you compare this car to its closest non-hybrid version, the GS430, it does not look all that impressive. The GS450h improves mileage over the GS430 by around 6mpg or 29% to 27 mpg (avg of city/fwy) while other specs are pretty much comparable. Now take a look at it another way. The 2006 Mercedes S500 comes with a 302bhp engines which is 37bhp below the Lexus, its 0 - 60mph is around the same as the Lexus's boastful 5.2 seconds. The S500 is about 7 mpg worse on consumption and $32,000 higher on price. That's like the price of a low end luxury car. The BMW 750i by comparison does exceed in bhp over the Lexus coming in at 360 vs. 339, not a discernable impact, but of course it's going to be worse in efficiency by 6 mpg and higher again in price by $18,000. I know that luxury branding is another planet. Rich people spend money for their reasons. But while branding for the well-to-do, these premiere car makers have their own set of rivalries and being peoples of science, all the other car makers must be feeling the left-behind by Lexus who has produced a beauty of a package. The GS450h probably does not win over would-be buyers of the S500 or 750i as much as it does for the E350($55,700) or the 530i($49,700). Scientific prowess has a tremendous branding impact. If not directly in the luxury car market, it still propels the brand enough to ripple through all market segments. Think of it like a Mercedes S500 with the mileage of a Toyota Camry and priced attainable for the upper middle class if you really really really want it ($54,000). Such punches at the competition can spark wars. A good war. As a result, the electric portion in today's hybrid cars could well become a mass market thing. BMW has already announced that it will be launching a hydrogen vehicle in its 7 series class in 2007 (I am researching this right now and could be my next blog entry). And Honda will start leasing its fuel cell car to selected customers. As for Mercedes I have yet to get wind of anything exciting from them apart from branding some of their cars for the high end of the luxury market. The 2007 S class has 2 trims: the S600 and S65 priced at $140,000 and $180,000 respectively. Not respectfully.

The other cars I mentioned at the opening of this blog are the Honda Accord V6 Hybrid and the Toyota Highlander V6 Hybrid. Both cars are good works of science. 200bhp+. Almost 30 mpg. Here's the problem. At $30,000+ the name brands are venturing out of sphere into the low end luxury market. That is the reason why I think they both have suffered in sales units. In the Accord or highlander brand the correct business decision would have been to build hybrid versions of the Accord LX and the 4-cylinder Highlander that would approach 40 mpg. Like what Toyota did with the hybrid Camry. The Lexus is positioned better in that regard. It does not even demand a significant premium over the GS430 and like I said will win converts from high priced luxury models of competitors that have smaller bodies, bhp and mpg. Perhaps the thinking at Honda and Toyota is not get the sales bomb right with these cars. Perhaps it really is just making a statement. Psychological. Anyway, the Lexus seems to get in all the angles. I would predict that the Lexus GS450h will sell 50,000+ cars in its 1st 12 months in the United States alone compared to the 20,000 or so units the Accord Hybrid is expected to come in at in 2006.

Good for Lexus, good for us.

PHEVs

I first came across this latest version of the hybrid experiment about a month back and started some research into it. It does well to pull you in with its bright lights banner of 100+ mpg. Gotta admit, it is spectacualr to see that kind of a push of the envelope. What is allowing the gas/electric hybrid combination to to reach such uncharted levels of mpg is a strong leverage towards the electric side of the vehicle with gas playing more of a supporting role and electric taking up the main charge. Ha ha, get it.....main charge. Sorry. Now, if the electric side is going to rein in such prowess it can't do it the way the existing hybrid car models are built. By self-charging. Taking their time. That won't do it - more power is needed. Hence, you must plug these babies in just like an all-electric car. Hence, a PHEV. Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle.

As I wrote in my very first blog entry, I and my Sothern California bretheren went through the trauma of $500 montly electricity bills this summer and the events of 100 power outages related deaths, hundreds of burnt out transformers that So Cal Edison didn't have enough manpower to catch up with, coming with in a hair of rolling blackouts and rotting food in refrigirators. The electric shock bills had become topics of conversation in any form of social gathering anywhere. I recall well the Edison officials on radio pleading that the pace of development in Sothern California has gotta be checked. Apparently, a 3 bedroom 1700 sq ft single family home priced at $600,000 isn't enough to stop it. Anyway, I digress. California's energy crises (thanks in part to the dead and buried firm of Enron) is not the world's.

Though these vehicles are still very much a spectator sport and any marketable entity is still a few years away, I still find the stuff exciting. At least to look at. For now. The experimental cars are small and feeble. Doing 40 miles off one charge. Top speeds of 60mpg. Stuff like that. All of that is going to change. The Tesla Roadster can do a top speed of 130mph and 200 miles off one charge. But its a $100,000 2 seater. I am not as big a fan of plug-in as I am of the self-charging batteries but with a hybrid combination the plug-in can be reduced to perhaps once or twice a week. The trip to the pump once a month. And thats workable. As long as the cars are built for mainstream. That's 200bhp. 3000 lbs+. Full size sedan. More than 50mpg. We don't need 100mpg. That will stay a spectator sport for some time. By the way, a Southern California company called Energy CS has plans to offer converter kits to convert certain existing hybrids into PHEVs for $12,000. If you want to put that into cost/benefit perspective then read my earlier blog titled 'Hybrid Reality Check'. Its an act of sports for now.

Hybrid Reality Check

Awright, recently I have read a spate of blogs and aritcles lamenting over the apparent downturn in hybrid vehicles given the drop in gas prices and you know......people being people. Ok, here's the deal people.....this is not terrible news, its awesome news! People are not saying they'll only look into the wimpy hybrid side of things if it hurts the wallet, they are registering their opposition to the pricing structure which is wrought with inefficiency.

Let's take the example of the Honda Civic, a model that has a regular and hybrid version. The Civic EX, its top trim in this model, is listed at $19,510 MSRP. The hybrid comes in at $22,600. The difference, $3,090. Now, this premium is what the pricing gurus have bet on as the premium you will pay, given not just your mental ability to calculate cost/benefit analysis, but the dominating psychology associated with a polluting environment, gas prices and global wars. The fact is that Honda has made quite a few concessions to the Civic Hybrid and a simple mpg comparison between the hybrid and non-hybrid versions is not apples to apples. The hybrid is 30 bhp less than the EX and has smaller wheels (done specially to eek out anoter couple of miles per gallon). This of course makes the $3,090 quite questionable. But, what about the fuel cost savings. Yes, those are there, but you are getting a lesser car at the same time. Shouldn't that even it out? And, what about those savings? Let's take a closer look. Generously assume the average driver does 12,000 miles per year. Let's take gas at $3/gallon (my prediction on gas prices for the summer of 2007, he he, let's see). For 12k miles, the EX will chuggle through 400 gallons in a year where as the hybrid will sip on 240 gallons. The savings: 160 gallons or $480 every year. Cost recorevery time frame on $3,090: OMG, 6.44 years! Thats a millenia these days. Hybrids could run out their entire lifetime cycle by then. Still worse, my eldest would be nearing college. I will be in financial hell. Last thing I will need is depression over how I got sidewinded again at the dealership over 6 years ago! And let's not even get into the battery depreciation cost (cause I dont have the info to write about it, he he).

Anyways, you know what, I still like these babies, twice already I forced myself to turn it down due to this ridiculous premium. Time to send the pricing gurus back to the drawing board. Take this comparison and look at the hybrid and non-hybrid versions of the Honda Accord V6 or the Toyota Camry. The Honda asks for a $5000 premium but not only do you retain all the power, the hybrid combo adds a small 13 bhp punch apparently kicking up acceleration a notch too. And its got run-flat tires plus other gadetry too. But the package is essentlially more sensical. However, at $30k+ and a lower 29mpg for a hybrid, this model smacks more of an enthusiast's production rather than a serious attempt at market. The Camry Hybrid, on the other hand, touts an impressive 39mpg and boosts bhp by 32 horses to 192 over its non-hybrid version with roughly a $5000 premium too. And its a looker. A friend of mine got one and we were drooling over its body and engine like it was a Porsche or something. What's wrong with us ? If you want this car, screw the calculations on recovering the premium cost with fuel savings. Thats gonna be years I'm sure. Its got 192bhp and 39mpg. And at $26,000 its priced to be bought. That's progress. A better mouse trap. A better car. Not a 100bhp, less than 3000 pounds car that gives you 50mpg.

Like I said, all of this is very good news. The hybrid downturn is a net upturn. We are going through some growing pains here. We are moving through days of feeble hybrids and their green psychology. That won't make a statement anymore. Look to 100mpg+ plug-in electircs for that kinda stuff. But don't get me started on that just yet. More on that later. We want real cars with 200bhp and 40mpg priced to sell. Go figure it out >>>>>>>

And hey, if you do own a Honda Civic Hybrid, here's something to make you feel a little better but don't be befooled by Charlie White's slip on the bhp of the car. If its was 140 I would have scooped it up a long time ago. Perhaps Charlie was merely resonating what should be. And, 0 - 60 in 12 secs ain't nothing to write home about. But still the car comes off rather nicely in the review and is generally quite well liked.....I think.

Hybrid Car Production

I recently came across an article from the website of apparently a premier car battery consulting company and sadly it predicts that production of Hybrid vehicles will reach only 1,000,000 by the year 2009. This despite Toyota predicting that 2006 total Hybrid sales could reach 400,000 and Toyota will notch up a lion's share with 180,000 vehicles. God help us if we just more than double in 3 whole years. This smacks of political influence as the global oil oligopoly is too concerned about demand levels for crude oil and wishes to regulate production of alternative technologies. There is no reason why with hybrid versions of existing models combined that sales levels should not reach 2m or 3m by 2009. People are not just taking a cost view of buying these vehicles. There is the inestimable cleaner environment and political neutralizing motivations. 1m should be a target for totally non-petroleum cars like electric and hydrogen-based. Here's the brief article that appears right on top of this page.....

http://www.advancedautobat.com/market.html